The Star - Online
Tuesday, November 07, 2006 Edition 2
Moshoeshoe Monare
The only hurdles that could thwart Jacob Zuma's personal presidential ambition is whether he could be tried and convicted, or if a political deal is struck within the ANC that turns him into a kingmaker.
Although it is highly likely he will be recharged with corruption (National Director of Public Prosecutions Vusi Pikoli recently told journalists "we are awaiting the outcome of the Schabir Shaik appeal"), it is too early to write Zuma's political obituary.
Unlike the rape case - which forced his staunchest supporters to distance themselves from him before he was eventually acquitted - the corruption charge was muddied by claims of political conspiracies, which found resonance within the ruling party.
It was the ANC's national general council (NGC) which decided that he should resume his duties in spite of the corruption charge. It was the national executive committee (NEC) which decided that he may have been treated unfairly.
It was in the alliance meeting where it was decided that the state must pay his legal fees - for which the Presidency has budgeted R10-million.
It was this case, after all, that propped up Zuma's popularity within the ANC and elevated him to a presidential heavyweight even after he said, in 2001, that he was not interested in the position.
Surely, the political mist around this case will compel Pikoli - if he decides to go ahead with the charges - to be meticulously thorough after the initial humiliation in the Pietermaritzburg High Court by Judge Herbert Msimang when he said their case "limped from one disaster to another".
However, as Zuma raised this concern in his affidavit, the case could drag beyond the ANC's 2007 congress, a forum which is ultimately expected to decide his career.
But if he heads to Limpopo - the proposed province to host the congress - with the corruption case hovering around his head, his supporters - who stood by him at last year's national general council - won't drop him.
To them, the corruption case - in the words of Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi - is a ploy to prevent Zuma from becoming SA's next president.
With senior Scorpions members on the wrong side of the law and Pikoli himself realising, without acknowledging, that his predecessor Bulelani Ngcuka might have messed up this case, perceptions of political conspiracy are firmly entrenched in the minds of Zuma supporters.
These perceptions, unless a court of law convicts, are also being reinforced by the Scorpions pouncing on ANC politicians lately associated with Zuma, such as former Limpopo premier Ngoako Ramatlhodi.
The NEC's decision to acknowledge that Zuma may have been treated unfairly by the NPA, and the fact that he needed support, means there won't be any disciplinary action against him even if he is charged again, unless he is convicted.
The NGC ruled against self-imposed suspension after he was charged last winter.
However, ANC leaders, especially the majority of those sympathetic to President Thabo Mbeki in the divisive succession battle in the ruling party, are likely to flag the pending corruption case as an attempt to contain Zuma's ambitions.
The NEC is already brandishing a document, Through the Eye of the Needle, which speaks on the characteristics of a good leader.
"A leader should lead by example. He should be above reproach in his political and social conduct, as defined by our revolutionary morality. Through force of example he should act as a role model to ANC members and non-members alike. Leading a life that reflects commitment to the strategic goals of the national democratic revolution includes not only being free of corrupt practices; it also means actively fighting against corruption."
The document is being circulated among the members for consideration ahead of nominations for new leadership.
But given the emotional tinge linked to this case, voting delegates are unlikely to consider such documents as a basis for dumping their icon.
Instead, the behind-the-scenes, closed-door horse-trading - which was kick-started by a document called Contextual Considerations in Addressing Challenges of Leadership but disclaimed by the ANC - could broker a compromise that will result in Zuma being contained.
Such a compromise - if he agrees to it - might make him a kingmaker and the most influential leader without being in power. For example, electing him ANC leader without becoming the country's president.
Alternatively, the compromise could include Mbeki being told not to stand - a possibility already mooted in hushed tones - and to convince Zuma supporters to agree to withdrawing him for the sake of unity in the ANC.
Some ANC Youth League leaders are already privately considering such a compromise, which is a move that could spark fresh tensions within the Zuma camp, as the likes of Vavi and SA Communist Party general secretary Blade Nzimande are unlikely to compromise.
Compounding this new rupture in the Zuma camp are intra-party divisions which wreaked havoc in Cosatu and are threatening to rip the SACP apart, and the beyond-Zuma ideological differences.
Another non-compromising group are the so-called outsiders - such as Zuma's unofficial aide Ranjeni Munusamy, the Shaiks and other businessmen - whose support, which is neither politically nor ideologically motivated, is perceived with suspicion even within the Zuma camp itself.
Unless Zuma is convicted or there is a political management to stifle internal democracy, the corruption case will continue to be a rallying point for his camp, prompting it to re-arm and thus propelling him to the status of a leader of the people.
It would trigger the sound of Umshini Wami again.